2026 U.S. Home Project Estimate Spread Index
Roof repair has the widest estimate spread in our 59-project dataset, with published ranges spanning 53.3x from low to high. This index ranks every project by how widely published estimates spread, so you can see which jobs are hardest to budget from online figures and which are straightforward.
A wide spread does not mean prices are unstable. It means published sources cover very different scopes, or disagree. Read the methodology before quoting a ratio.
Download the ranked data (CSV)Last updated: 2026-10-22
Top 15 projects by estimate spread
Spread ratio = high estimate / low estimate, from our verified planning bands. Bars are linear; the label shows the absolute band.
All 59 projects, ranked by spread
Click a column heading to sort. Every project links to its full cost guide with cited sources.
| Confidence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roof Repair per project | $150 | $1,150 | $8,000 | 53.3x | High |
| 2 | Heat Pump Installation project | $2,000 | $8,500 | $35,000 | 17.5x | Medium |
| 3 | Septic Tank Installation project | $3,000 | $10,000 | $50,000 | 16.7x | Medium |
| 4 | Deck Staining per project | $100 | $850 | $1,465 | 14.7x | Medium |
| 5 | Gutter Guards Installation per project | $650 | $1,500 | $9,000 | 13.8x | High |
| 6 | Paint vs Reface vs Replace Kitchen Cabinets project | $2,000 | $7,000 | $25,000 | 12.5x | Medium |
| 7 | Attic Insulation project | $500 | $2,100 | $6,000 | 12.0x | Medium |
| 8 | Sewer Line Replacement per project | $1,500 | $5,000 | $15,000 | 10.0x | Medium |
| 9 | Tub to Shower Conversion project | $1,200 | $9,000 | $12,000 | 10.0x | Medium |
| 10 | Window Replacement per window | $300 | $800 | $3,000 | 10.0x | Medium |
| 11 | Spray Foam Insulation per project | $1,000 | $2,888 | $9,000 | 9.0x | High |
| 12 | Sump Pump Installation project | $450 | $1,200 | $4,000 | 8.9x | Medium |
| 13 | Air Duct Cleaning project | $200 | $550 | $1,500 | 7.5x | Medium |
| 14 | Basement Flooring per square foot | $2 | $6 | $15 | 7.5x | Medium |
| 15 | Gutter Installation project | $600 | $1,800 | $4,500 | 7.5x | Medium |
| 16 | Thermostat Installation per project | $85 | $250 | $625 | 7.4x | Medium |
| 17 | Ductless Mini Split Installation project | $2,500 | $5,000 | $15,000 | 6.0x | Medium |
| 18 | Flooring Removal and Subfloor Repair per sq ft | $1 | $4 | $6 | 6.0x | Medium |
| 19 | Furnace Installation project | $2,000 | $5,500 | $12,000 | 6.0x | Medium |
| 20 | Ductwork Replacement project | $1,400 | $3,500 | $8,000 | 5.7x | High |
| 21 | Staircase Refinishing per step | $25 | $75 | $140 | 5.6x | Medium |
| 22 | Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring per square foot | $3 | $7 | $16 | 5.3x | Medium |
| 23 | Bedroom Painting per room | $240 | $600 | $1,240 | 5.2x | Medium |
| 24 | Water Heater Installation project | $600 | $1,700 | $3,100 | 5.2x | Medium |
| 25 | Bathtub Replacement per project | $2,101 | $5,923 | $9,747 | 4.6x | Medium |
| 26 | Laminate Flooring Installation per sq ft | $3 | $8 | $13 | 4.3x | Medium |
| 27 | Laminate vs Vinyl Plank Flooring per square foot | $3 | $8 | $13 | 4.3x | Medium |
| 28 | Quartz vs Granite Countertops per square foot | $35 | $80 | $150 | 4.3x | Medium |
| 29 | Walk-In Tub Installation project | $3,500 | $7,000 | $15,000 | 4.3x | Medium |
| 30 | Central AC Installation project | $3,500 | $6,000 | $14,000 | 4.0x | Medium |
| 31 | Epoxy Garage Floor Coating per square foot | $3 | $7 | $12 | 4.0x | Medium |
| 32 | Tankless Water Heater Installation per project | $1,400 | $2,800 | $5,600 | 4.0x | Medium |
| 33 | Bathroom Tile Installation per square foot | $8 | $17 | $30 | 3.8x | Medium |
| 34 | Kitchen Countertops per square foot installed | $40 | $75 | $150 | 3.8x | Medium |
| 35 | Tile Flooring Installation per square foot | $8 | $17 | $30 | 3.8x | Medium |
| 36 | Water Softener Installation per project | $800 | $1,500 | $3,000 | 3.8x | High |
| 37 | Furnace vs Heat Pump per project | $3,500 | $8,000 | $13,000 | 3.7x | Medium |
| 38 | Carpet Installation per square foot | $3 | $6 | $11 | 3.7x | Medium |
| 39 | Radiant Floor Heating per square foot | $6 | $11 | $20 | 3.3x | Medium |
| 40 | Kitchen Cabinet Painting per project | $2,000 | $4,000 | $6,500 | 3.3x | Medium |
| 41 | Boiler Installation per project | $3,000 | $5,800 | $9,000 | 3.0x | Medium |
| 42 | Ceiling Painting per square foot | $1 | $2 | $3 | 3.0x | Medium |
| 43 | Interior Painting sq-ft | $2 | $3 | $6 | 3.0x | Medium |
| 44 | Interior House Painting (2000 sq ft) project | $4,000 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 3.0x | Medium |
| 45 | Kitchen Remodel per project | $14,588 | $26,942 | $41,555 | 2.8x | Medium |
| 46 | Engineered vs Solid Hardwood Flooring per square foot | $9 | $16 | $25 | 2.8x | Medium |
| 47 | Shower Tiling project | $1,800 | $2,700 | $5,000 | 2.8x | Medium |
| 48 | Exterior House Painting sq ft of paintable exterior surface area | $2 | $3 | $4 | 2.7x | Medium |
| 49 | Hardwood Floor Refinishing per square foot | $3 | $5 | $8 | 2.7x | Medium |
| 50 | Refinishing vs Replacing Hardwood Floors per square foot | $3 | $5 | $8 | 2.7x | Medium |
| 51 | Kitchen Backsplash Installation per square foot | $15 | $28 | $40 | 2.7x | Medium |
| 52 | Whole House Fan Installation per project | $900 | $1,700 | $2,400 | 2.7x | High |
| 53 | Carpet to Hardwood Replacement per square foot | $12 | $20 | $30 | 2.5x | Medium |
| 54 | Cabinet Refacing vs Replacement per project (average kitchen) | $4,500 | $7,250 | $10,500 | 2.3x | Medium |
| 55 | Hardwood Floor Installation sq ft | $11 | $18 | $25 | 2.3x | Medium |
| 56 | Roof Replacement project | $5,900 | $9,600 | $13,400 | 2.3x | Medium |
| 57 | Deck Refinishing vs Resurfacing vs Replacing per square foot | $2 | $3 | $4 | 2.0x | Medium |
| 58 | Walk-In Shower Remodel per project | $6,000 | $9,000 | $12,000 | 2.0x | Medium |
| 59 | Bathroom Remodel per project | $11,338 | $14,386 | $17,433 | 1.5x | Medium |
Tightest spreads: the most predictable budgets
The ten projects where published estimates agree most closely. These are the jobs you can budget with the most confidence from online figures.
| Project | Band | Typical | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bathroom Remodel | $11,338-$17,433 | $14,386 | 1.54x |
| Deck Refinishing vs Resurfacing vs Replacing | $2-$4 | $3 | 2.00x |
| Walk-In Shower Remodel | $6,000-$12,000 | $9,000 | 2.00x |
| Roof Replacement | $5,900-$13,400 | $9,600 | 2.27x |
| Hardwood Floor Installation | $11-$25 | $18 | 2.27x |
| Cabinet Refacing vs Replacement | $4,500-$10,500 | $7,250 | 2.33x |
| Carpet to Hardwood Replacement | $12-$30 | $20 | 2.50x |
| Exterior House Painting | $2-$4 | $3 | 2.67x |
| Hardwood Floor Refinishing | $3-$8 | $5 | 2.67x |
| Refinishing vs Replacing Hardwood Floors | $3-$8 | $5 | 2.67x |
What we measured, exactly
Formula. For each of the 59 projects in our verified Cost Index, spread ratio = high_usd / low_usd, using the published planning band endpoints. Projects are ranked by this ratio, highest first. The ratio is always shown alongside the absolute low, typical, and high figures, because a 53x ratio on a $150 floor means something different from a 10x ratio on a $1,200 floor.
What the ratio measures. How widely published estimates spread for a project. A wide spread usually reflects scope heterogeneity (a $150 shingle patch and an $8,000 section rebuild share the label "roof repair"), geography, materials, and differences in source methodology.
What it does not measure. This is not statistical volatility and not price unpredictability. We do not have transaction-price time series, and we make no claim about the variance of actual quotes or about any individual project. Do not describe a high-spread project as "unpredictable"; describe it as hard to budget from published estimates without pinning down scope.
Provenance. Every band comes from the Cost Index dataset: each row is a published guide's headline verified cost record with cited sources, reviewed by the HouseholdDecors Editorial Team. See the full methodology. No figures were fabricated for this index; it is derived entirely from the verified dataset.
Read this before citing a ratio
- Bands compile multiple published sources with different scopes, geographies, years, and methods. The ratio reflects source and scope heterogeneity, not transaction-price variance.
- Small floors inflate ratios. Deck staining spans 14.7x, but its $100 floor is a minimum scope; the absolute band ($100-$1,465) tells the fuller story.
- Per-unit rows (per sq ft, per vent, per linear ft) are not directly comparable to per-project rows. Units are labeled in the table.
- Bands are national. Regional price levels are not captured, and a local quote can fall outside the band.
- 59 projects. This is not a forecast and not a probability statement about any individual quote.
Explore the source data in the 2026 U.S. Home Project Cost Index, or embed our free cost estimator on your own site.